Thermoregulatory model for prediction of long-term cold exposure.

A multi-segmental mathematical model has been developed for predicting shivering and thermoregulatory responses during long-term cold exposure. The present model incorporates new knowledge on shivering thermogenesis, including the control and maximal limits of its intensity, inhibition due to a low core temperature, and prediction of endurance time. The model also takes into account individual characteristics of age, height, weight, % body fat, and maximum aerobic capacity. The model was validated against three different cold conditions i.e. water immersion up to 38 h and air exposure. The predictions were found to be in good agreement with the observations.