Predictors of renal allograft histologic damage progression.

The objective of this study was to analyze factors that are involved in the progression of renal allograft damage in the first 6 mo after transplantation. Donor and 6-mo protocol biopsies of 83 patients who received a renal transplant were classified using the Chronic Allograft Damage Index (CADI). Histologic changes were compared and correlated to clinical parameters at transplantation, at 6 mo, and annually over 2 yr. All CADI components increased significantly in the 6-mo posttransplantation period, except chronic vascular changes and the percentage of glomerulosclerosis. Total cholesterol and LDL- cholesterol at the time of biopsy correlated positively with mesangial matrix increase, and HDL cholesterol correlated negatively with vascular intima increase. High BP at biopsy was associated with tubular atrophy. Diastolic BP at biopsy correlated with 6-mo CADI (CADI-6). Patients with diastolic BP > or =85 mmHg at biopsy had a higher difference between CADI score in protocol biopsies and CADI score in donor biopsies (DeltaCADI) and higher creatinine at 1 and 2 yr. CADI in donor biopsies (CADI-0) >1 was more frequently found in older (odds ratio [OR], 1.07; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.01 to 1.14) and nontraumatic dead donors (OR, 3.89; 95% CI, 1.13 to 13.33). CADI-6 >3 was more frequently found in those with CADI-0 >1 (OR, 3.82; 95% CI, 1.19 to 12.21), older donors (OR, 1.05; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.10), and number of AB mismatches (OR, 2.36; 95% CI, 1.09 to 5.10). CADI-0, CADI-6, and DeltaCADI correlated significantly with serum creatinine at hospital discharge, at 6 mo, and at 2 yr. DeltaCADI was affected by initial percentage of glomerulosclerosis (OR, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.02 to 1.19) and creatinine at hospital discharge (OR, 1.01; 95% CI, 1.00 to 1.02). Donor-related as well as nonimmunologic factors, such as hypertension and dyslipidemia, are associated with increased risk for renal allograft damage progression.