Estimates of cancer incidence in China for 2000 and projections for 2005.

Knowledge of the incidence of cancer is a fundamental requirement of rational planning and monitoring of cancer control programs. The lack of national-level information systems on health indicators in China means that estimation methods are required. Estimates and projections of national level cancer mortality have been previously made using sample surveys of deaths. Using these mortality data, incidence rates in 2000 and 2005 were estimated by means of the ratio of cancer cases/deaths (by site, age, and sex) in good quality cancer registries in China. A total of 2.1 million cancer cases were estimated for the year 2000 (1.3 million in men, 0.8 million in women), with the most common sites being lung, liver, and stomach in men, and breast, lung, and stomach in women. The total number of new cases is expected to increase by 14.6% by 2005, primarily as a result of population growth and aging. In addition, the rising rates of lung cancer incidence (in both sexes) and breast cancer mean that there will be much greater increases in the number of cases at these two sites (27% for lung cancer in men, 38% for lung and breast cancer in women). These two cancers are now the priorities for cancer prevention, early detection, and therapy in China.