[Preliminary recidivism rates of the Essener prognosis study].

The prediction of dangerousness in mentally disordered offenders -- and here mainly the issue of safety -- is still of primary interest for forensic experts and the public. The effectiveness of treatment and therefore of the whole German forensic system is generally measured by recidivism rates of this clientele. This article presents topical recidivism rates of 255 mentally ill offenders after a minimum time at risk of 2 years (mean 4 years). Data are collected in the Essener prospective multicenter study funded by the German research association which began in 1997 and in which 23 forensic hospitals in Germany took part. Main objective of the study is the determination of valid criteria for predicting recidivism of mentally disordered offenders. Currently the rates for general recidivism are 21.6 % and for severe reoffences 7.5 % which are in comparison to other recent studies relatively low.