Is the primary event in radiation-induced chronic myelogenous leukemia the induction of the t(9;22) translocation?

The probability that ionizing radiation induces a t(9;22) reciprocal translocation with its break points confined to the same regions as the break points for the Philadelphia (Ph') translocation in chronic myelogenous leukemia (CML) has been calculated to be 7 x 10(-12) per cell and gray. This figure was used to estimate the number of individuals among the atomic bomb survivors at Hiroshima and Nagasaki with such an induced translocation. For 9196 atomic bomb survivors who received a mean organ dose equivalent to bone marrow of 0.85 sievert, the estimate is done that the number of individuals with a radiation-induced t(9;22) translocation in one of the pluripotent stem cells in bone marrow is of the order of 50. The observed number of affected individuals with CML within the same cohort is 18. Even if the estimate of the number of individuals has relatively large errors, this indicates that the primary event in the radiation-induced CML cases can be a radiation-induced t(9;22) reciprocal translocation.