A prospective study of low back pain.

Consecutive patients attending hospital for the first time with backache were entered into a prospective study, provided that certain defined causes (infective, neoplastic, metabolic and inflammatory etc.) were not apparent at the first visit. Amongst 188 available for analysis, 65% were discharged and 28% defaulted, together making a total of 93% who 'recovered uneventfully' (in the sense that they were no longer attending hospital) on average in about three months, 4% came to 'myelography' (radiculography using Dimer-X or Amipaque) including 2% to discectomy, 1.5% proved to have treatable underlying diseases accounting for their backache while 1.5% became 'chronic attenders'. Information available at the first visit (patient characteristics, history, examination, radiographs and psychological questionnaire) provided few pointers to what the outcome would be or how long the patient would attend hospital. In particular, routine X-ray examination did not provide clues to any important conditions not already suspected by the clinicians. A case is made for reserving routine radiography for patients who have not recovered within about three months.