Identifying and characterizing adolescent smoking trajectories.

Our understanding of longitudinal patterns of adolescent smoking development and the determinants of these patterns is limited. The present study evaluated adolescent smoking trajectories and characterized these trajectories with social, psychological, and behavioral factors in a cohort of adolescents assessed annually from grades 9 to 12. Complete data (smoking practices, novelty seeking, academic performance, substance use, peer smoking, physical activity and sports participation, and tobacco ad receptivity) were available on 968 participants; data were analyzed using latent class growth modeling. Four adolescent smoking trajectories emerged: never smokers, experimenters, earlier/faster smoking adopters, and later/slower smoking adopters. Early adopters were characterized by their high novelty seeking personality, depressive symptoms, poorer academic performance, and receptivity to tobacco advertising, as well as their exposure to other smokers, and use of other substances. Later adopters were characterized quite similarly to the early adopters, although they tended to perform better in school and to be more involved in sports. Experimenters also shared many of these same risk characteristics but to a lesser degree. Overall, never smokers were the most conventional in their profile. These data suggest that there is significant heterogeneity in the timing, rate, and intensity of smoking progression. Adolescent smoking prevention and intervention programs will need to consider this heterogeneity and tailor or enhance attention to risk and protective factors depending on the subpopulation.