Simulation modeling of carcinogenesis.

A discrete-time simulation model of carcinogenesis is described mathematically using recursive relationships between time-varying model variables. The dynamics of cellular behavior is represented within a biological framework that encompasses two irreversible and heritable genetic changes. Empirical data and biological supposition dealing with both control and experimental animal groups are used together to establish values for model input variables. The estimation of these variables is integral to the simulation process as described in step-by-step detail. Hepatocarcinogenesis in male F344 rats provides the basis for seven modeling scenarios which illustrate the complexity of relationships among cell proliferation, genotoxicity, and tumor risk.