Analysis of a staging assessment system for prediction of surgical interval in recurrent respiratory papillomatosis.

INTRODUCTION: A staging system for assessment of recurrent respiratory papillomatosis (RRP) has been in use over the last 3 years for 17 patients at our children's hospital.
OBJECTIVE: To evaluate a staging system for assessment of RRP on the basis of the predictive value on the surgical interval of: anatomic staging system score, urgency of intervention, voice quality, and stridor. To assess effect on surgical interval of the age of patient at time of surgery and use of adjuvant therapy. To develop a model based on the staging criteria to predict need for adjuvant therapy.
DESIGN: Validation cohort.
SETTING: Academic children's hospital.
RESULTS: Estimated time to surgery decreased by "x days": "independent variable" "(95% CI)" as follows. Four days: each 1 point in total anatomical score (0.2, 8); 120 days: total anatomical score >20 (37,203); 143 days: urgent versus scheduled surgery (42, 243); 100 days: aphonic versus normal voice (-211, 343); 31 days: abnormal versus normal voice (-281, 343); 125 days: stridor at rest versus no stridor (-31, 281); 109 days: stridor with activity versus no stridor (19, 198); 26 days: each 1 year decrease in age (22, 30). Adjuvant therapy delays next surgery by 32 days (-4, 69) and average scores decreased while on adjuvant therapy.
CONCLUSIONS: Elements of our proposed staging system are effective in prediction of surgical interval with statistical significance achieved for total anatomical scores, urgency of intervention and stridor with activity versus no stridor. This study is pilot in nature and provides a framework upon which future studies can be based. The analysis of a larger, more severity diverse population could yield results which lead to a model capable of effectively predicting future surgical interval based on a weighted prediction score calculated from age, comorbidities, anatomic staging score, and clinical staging score.