Scale effect and calibration of contaminant transport models.

The influence on solute transport of the small-scale spatial variation of aquifer hydraulic conductivity (K) was analyzed by comparing results from fine-grid (2 m by 2 m) simulations of a synthetic heterogeneous aquifer to those from coarse-grid (8 m by 4 m) simulations of an equivalent homogeneous aquifer. Realizations of the K field of the heterogeneous aquifer were generated, using the Monte Carlo approach, from a lognormal distribution with mean log K of 2 (K in m/d) and three levels of log K variance of 0.1, 0.5, and 1.0. Numerical simulation results show that the average standard deviation of point concentrations increased from 1.21 to 5.78 when the value of log K variance was increased from 0.1 to 1.0. The average discrepancy between modeled concentrations (obtained from a coarse-grid deterministic numerical simulation) and the actual mean point concentrations (obtained from fine-grid Monte Carlo numerical simulations) increased from 0.91 to 4.23 with the increase in log K variance. The results from this study illustrate the uncertainty in predictions from contaminant transport models due to their inability to simulate the effects of heterogeneities at scales smaller than the model grid.