Circumcision: is the risk of urinary tract infection really the pivotal issue?

Recent information regarding the increased risk of urinary tract infections in the first year of life for uncircumcised boys has created confusion regarding the appropriate guidance to be given to parents confronting the circumcision issue. A decision model was built that addressed the question of whether or not to circumcise a newborn male considering the probability of a non-circumcised boy having a UTI in the first year of life (0.041), the probability of a circumcised boy having a UTI in the first year of life (0.002), and the likelihood of renal scarring from a UTI (0.075). After considering the morbidity associated with the procedure, all possible outcomes were ranked from worst to best (circumcised-renal pathology to uncircumcised-no infection) and given a value on a 0 to 1 scale. For the set of values assigned to the outcomes, the choice of no circumcision yielded the highest expected utility. For the set of assigned utilities, sensitivity analysis showed that unless the probability of a UTI in the first year of life for an uncircumcised male was greater than or equal to 0.29, then non-circumcision was still the preferred choice. The decision was most sensitive to the degree of aversion to the morbidity associated with the procedure (pain, bleeding, inflammation).