A standard person-years approach to estimating lifetime cancer risk. The Section of Chronic Disease and Environmental Epidemiology Minnesota Department of Health.

Several methods have been used to estimate the lifetime probability of cancer, such as simple cumulative incidence or competing risk models. These methods are characterized by either simplistic assumptions or detailed computations. The standard person-years method, that parallels cohort analyses, offers a simpler and more accurate method of approximating the lifetime risks of cancer. Since lifetime cancer risk refers to the aggregate risk to a cohort rather than the risk to an individual, it is suggested that a new term, population cancer risk, be used in describing these risks. A reasonable definition for the population cancer risk is the expected number of cancers in the lifetimes of 1,000 people. Estimates of lifetime risks of cancer are interpreted best as a composite measure of the joint forces of cancer morbidity and all-cause mortality at a point in time. The overall population cancer risk (lifetime risk) for residents of Minnesota (United States) is calculated to be 465 cancers/1,000 people; national data provide similar results.