Palaeoecology, reference conditions and classification of ecological status: the EU Water Framework Directive in practice.

The European Union's Water Framework Directive (WFD) requires that all Member States within the European Union determine reference conditions for aquatic ecosystems to provide a baseline against which to measure the effects of past and present activities. Reference conditions are subsequently used to classify the ecological status of European waters. The decisions regarding environmental status will be important future elements in the management of European coastal waters. We have developed a number of classification scenarios for total nitrogen (TN) in the overlying waters of the southern part of Roskilde Fjord, Denmark, taking as our basis a palaeoecological reconstruction of fluctuations in TN between 1850 and 1995. We present a provisional classification scheme for the ecological status of Roskilde Fjord, sensu the WFD. Decision(s) regarding the deviation from reference conditions will give a wide range of apparent ecological status from good, through moderate and poor, to bad depending upon the definition of an acceptable deviation from reference conditions. The determination of an acceptable deviation will ultimately be a political decision, and will result in a wide range in the protection of coastal waters in Europe. There is still, however, an urgent need for a sound scientific documentation of the various scenarios for the implementation of the WFD.