P J O'Connor1. 1. Kingswood, South Australia, Australia.
Abstract
STUDY DESIGN: Cohort study, based on cases of spinal cord injury (SCI) that occurred between 1986 and 1997 (n=2959). OBJECTIVES: To estimate prevalence historically, currently and into the future. SETTING: Australia. METHODS: Prevalence was estimated on the basis of (1) historical data concerning survival and the relationship between the incidence of fatalities and SCI, (2) information on SCI incidence and survival 1986-1997, and (3) forecasts of incidence and population growth from 1997 to 2021 and consideration of survival. RESULTS: It was estimated that the prevalence of SCI in Australia was in the range 8096-9614 cases by 1985. By 1997, this had increased to nearly 10,000 and the prevalence rate was more than 681 per million of population. By 2021, this could increase to nearly 12,000 if age-specific SCI incidence rates continued at average values evident over the period 1986-1997 and national population projections applied. In addition, there would be more elderly SCI cases due to the ageing of the national population. The prevalent population could be reduced to less than 7000 if the incidence rate was reduced by -3% p.a. CONCLUSION: The prevalence of SCI in Australia has increased and it will continue to increase unless measures are taken to control incidence. The case mix will change due to the ageing of the population, and treatment services will need to be prepared for a larger and more elderly prevalent population. It was suggested that consideration should be given to a national health and welfare goal to reduce the SCI incidence rate by -3% p.a., focusing in particular on the prevention of transport crashes and falls.
STUDY DESIGN: Cohort study, based on cases of spinal cord injury (SCI) that occurred between 1986 and 1997 (n=2959). OBJECTIVES: To estimate prevalence historically, currently and into the future. SETTING: Australia. METHODS: Prevalence was estimated on the basis of (1) historical data concerning survival and the relationship between the incidence of fatalities and SCI, (2) information on SCI incidence and survival 1986-1997, and (3) forecasts of incidence and population growth from 1997 to 2021 and consideration of survival. RESULTS: It was estimated that the prevalence of SCI in Australia was in the range 8096-9614 cases by 1985. By 1997, this had increased to nearly 10,000 and the prevalence rate was more than 681 per million of population. By 2021, this could increase to nearly 12,000 if age-specific SCI incidence rates continued at average values evident over the period 1986-1997 and national population projections applied. In addition, there would be more elderly SCI cases due to the ageing of the national population. The prevalent population could be reduced to less than 7000 if the incidence rate was reduced by -3% p.a. CONCLUSION: The prevalence of SCI in Australia has increased and it will continue to increase unless measures are taken to control incidence. The case mix will change due to the ageing of the population, and treatment services will need to be prepared for a larger and more elderly prevalent population. It was suggested that consideration should be given to a national health and welfare goal to reduce the SCI incidence rate by -3% p.a., focusing in particular on the prevention of transport crashes and falls.
Authors: Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar; Soheil Saadat; Mohammad R Rasouli; Sarah Ganji; Mayam Ghahramani; Mohammad-Reza Zarei; Alexander R Vaccaro Journal: J Spinal Cord Med Date: 2009 Impact factor: 1.985