Predictors of random sextant biopsy outcome in screened men with PSA > 4 ng/mL and a negative sextant biopsy at previous screening. Experience in a population-based screening program in Florence.

The aim of this study was to evaluate possible pedictors of the outcome of repeat random sextant biopsy of the prostate prompted by a rise in prostate-specific antigen (PSA). Random biopsies performed for PSA elevation (>4 ng/mL) in the course of a randomized study of screening efficacy were reviewed, and 87 consecutive biopsies (carcinoma = 13, high-grade prostatic intraepithelial neoplasia = 6, negative = 68) performed in subjects with a negative random biopsy at the previous screening round were considered. Findings at digital rectal examination or transrectal ultrasonography and total PSA value were not useful predictors of repeat biopsy outcome, whereas PSA velocity was significantly associated with biopsy outcome. The positive predictive value for a cancer biopsy was 2.7% (1/36), 28.5% (2/7), and 22.7% (10/44) for PSA velocity values of <0.1, 0.1-0.19, and >0.19 ng/mL/yr, respectively. A cutoff of 0.1 ng/mL/yr for PSA velocity would have allowed to avoid approximately half (35/74 = 47.2%) of the benign biopsies while decreasing the sensitivity by 7.6% (1/13), and is thus suggested as a possible criterion for the indication of repeat random biopsy for persistent PSA elevation.