Time trend and age-period-cohort effects on incidence of esophageal cancer in Connecticut, 1935-89.

The purpose of this study was to examine the incidence pattern of esophageal cancer in Connecticut (USA) during the past decades, and to identify components of birth cohort, period, and and age as determinants of the observed time trends by regression modelling. This study is based on all of the esophageal cancer cases reported to the Connecticut Tumor Registry between 1935 and 1989. A total of 6,310 incident cases were included. Results indicate that among males, the overall age-adjusted incidence rate of esophageal cancer increased after 1935 and peaked between 1955 and 1959. Since then, incidence rates have been relatively stable. Among females, the overall esophageal cancer rate has not changed markedly since 1935. Analysis by histologic type indicates that the incidence rate of squamous cell carcinoma has been declining in this population; adenocarcinoma, however, showed a continuous increase. A fivefold increase among males and a threefold increase among females were observed for adenocarcinoma of the esophagus between 1970 and 1989. If cancers of the esophagus and gastric cardia are considered together, the incidence rate of adenocarcinoma exceeds that of squamous cell carcinoma among males during 1985-89. The observed increasing trend for adenocarcinoma of the esophagus is mainly from cancers arising in the lower third of the esophagus and primarily among Whites, especially White males. The results from regression modeling indicate that both period and birth cohort may have contributed to the observed increasing trend, and adenocarcinoma of the esophagus is likely to increase continuously in this population in the coming years.