Acute-to-chronic species sensitivity distribution extrapolation.

Seeking to make greater use of available data for risk assessment of substances, we constructed, for the situation in which chronic data are limited or even nonexistent but acute data are relatively large, an acute to chronic transformation (ACT) methodology based on the concept of species sensitivity distributions (SSDs). This ACT methodology uses a comparison of acute and chronic SSDs, separately for vertebrate data (with 22 substances) and for invertebrate data (with 15 substances). Rather than comparing an acute toxicity value with a chronic value, as when calculating an acute to chronic ratio (ACR), samples of acute and chronic data corresponding to the same category of species were compared. Starting from a sample of acute data, the ACT methodology showed relationships that enable the creation of a sample of predicted chronic values. This sample can then be used to calculate a predicted chronic hazardous concentration potentially affecting 5% of species (HC5%), just as with a sample of real chronic toxicity values. This ACT approach was tested on 11 substances. For each substance, the real chronic HC5% and the predicted chronic HC5% were calculated and compared. The ratio between chronic HC5% and ACT HC5% was, on average, 1.6 and did not exceed 4.4 for the 11 substances studied.