Tax incidence and net benefits in the market for employment-related health insurance: sensitivity of estimates to the incidence of employer costs.

The market for employment-related coverage contains public transfers through the tax system and private transfers across workers with predictably different risks. We examine both transfers across a wide range of employee characteristics, including age, race, ethnicity, family size, poverty level, and health risk. To resolve longstanding questions regarding the incidence of employer contributions, we simulate a range of alternative incidence scenarios in which (i) all employees offered coverage in a firm share equally in the employer's costs, (ii) burdens are narrowly targeted according to employee-specific health risks, and (iii) intermediate cases with burdens targeted by job characteristics, age, sex, race, ethnicity, and family size. Our results provide evidence regarding the distribution of tax subsidies and net benefits under a range of scenarios that we believe bound the true incidence of employer premium contributions.