Accuracy of criteria for predicting recurrence and metastasis in stage II and III gastric cancer patients with lymph node metastasis.

This study assessed the prediction of gastric cancer recurrence based on detection of occult neoplastic cells (ONCs) in lymph nodes, and by using criteria that were developed to identify patients with a high risk of recurrence/metastasis. The subjects were 60 patients of stage II or III gastric cancer with lymph node metastasis. Prediction of recurrence based on the detection of ONCs showed a sensitivity of 33.3% (2/6), specificity of 70.0% (7/10), and accuracy of 51.7% in stage II patients, while the sensitivity was 73.5% (25/34), specificity was 100.0% (10/10), and accuracy was 86.8% in stage III patients. Prediction of recurrence based on the presence of at least 2 high-risk criteria had a sensitivity of 33.3% (2/6), specificity of 100.0% (10/10), and accuracy of 66.7% in stage II patients, while the sensitivity was 82.4% (28/34), specificity was 80.0% (8/10), and accuracy was 81.2% in stage III patients. These results suggest that prediction of recurrence/metastasis soon after surgery using ONCs plus the high-risk criteria can increase the specificity in stage II cancer, and can achieve a sensitivity of 80% or more with a high specificity and accuracy in stage III cancer.