Motivational stages of adolescent smoking initiation: predictive validity and predictors of transitions.

The present study tested the use and validity of a stage model of adolescent smoking initiation. The model aims to identify adolescents who are currently not smoking, but who are cognitively predisposed to start smoking in the future. Research on subtypes within the precontemplation stage of adolescent smoking initiation and the concept of susceptibility to smoking led to the construction of a motivational stage model of four distinct stages: committer, immotive, progressive, and contemplator. Using longitudinal data on a large international sample of European adolescents (n=7117), the model proved to have value in predicting smoking initiation at 12 months follow up. The odds ratio to take up regular smoking behavior appeared to double with each forward stage transition. Although effect sizes were small to moderate, unique predictors of transitions from the various stages were identified. Implications of the findings are discussed.