A quantitative model of cellular senescence influence on cancer and longevity.

Contrary to the paradigm that cancer incidence increases indefinitely with age, significant data now suggest cancer incidence may markedly reduce beyond age 80 years for humans and beyond 800 days for mice, and is not inevitable. We show that increasing cellular senescence with age is a possible cause of this reduction, since senescent cells are removed from the pool of cells that retain proliferative ability necessary for cancer. We further show that animal interventions appearing to alter senescence, p53 mutation and melatonin dosing, support the prediction that increasing senescence rate reduces cancer while reducing lifespan, and vice versa. Studies of environmental agents associated with increased cancer might be re-examined to find if there is an association with longevity increases, which may markedly alter our view of such agents. We also show that if an agent functions by slowing both senescence and carcinogenesis, longevity is increased while reducing cancer. Dietary restriction is the only known intervention that accomplishes this, but there may be others.