Climate change: potential effects of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), ozone (O3), and ultraviolet-B (UV-B) radiation on plant diseases.

Continued world population growth results in increased emission of gases from agriculture, combustion of fossil fuels, and industrial processes. This causes changes in the chemical composition of the atmosphere. Evidence is emerging that increased solar ultraviolet-B (UV-B) radiation is reaching the earth's atmosphere, due to stratospheric ozone depletion. Carbon dioxide (CO(2)), ozone (O(3)) and UV-B are individual climate change factors that have direct biological effects on plants. Such effects may directly or indirectly affect the incidence and severity of plant diseases, caused by biotic agents. Carbon dioxide may increase plant canopy size and density, resulting in a greater biomass of high nutritional quality, combined with a much higher microclimate relative humidity. This would be likely to promote plant diseases such as rusts, powdery mildews, leaf spots and blights. Inoculum potential from greater overwintering crop debris would also be increased. Ozone is likely to have adverse effects on plant growth. Necrotrophic pathogens may colonize plants weakened by O(3) at an accelerated rate, while obligate biotroph infections may be lessened. Ozone is unlikely to have direct adverse effects on fungal pathogens. Ozone effects on plant diseases are host plant mediated. The principal effects of increased UV-B on plant diseases would be via alterations in host plants. Increased flavonoids could lead to increased diseased resistance. Reduced net photosynthesis and premature ripening and senescence could result in a decrease in diseases caused by biotrophs and an increase in those caused by necrotrophs. Microbial plant pathogens are less likely to be adversely affected by CO(2), O(3) and UV-B than are their corresponding host plants. Changes in host plants may result in expectable alterations of disease incidence, depending on host plant growth stages and type of pathogen. Given the importance of plant diseases in world food and fiber production, it is essential to begin studying the effects of increased CO(2), O(3) and UV-B (and other climate change factors) on plant diseases. We know very little about the actual impacts of climate change factors on disease epidemiology. Epidemiologists should be encouraged to consider CO(2), O(3) and UV-B as factors in their field studies.