Secular trends in the occurrence of tuberculosis in an urban community in north west England, 1918-2001: implications for a local tuberculosis control programme.

In recent years enhanced surveillance of tuberculosis has been undertaken for England and Wales to monitor national epidemiological trends. The Chief Medical Officer's strategy for communicable diseases has identified the development of a national strategy for the control of tuberculosis as a priority. Regional and sub-regional variations in the occurrence of tuberculosis require further exploration to inform local implementation of the national strategy. Secular epidemiological trends in tuberculosis for the period 1918-2001 are described for a deprived urban area in the north west of England, and implications for local enhanced surveillance and control measures are discussed. A substantial decline in mortality and morbidity from tuberculosis is shown due to interruption of transmission following improvements to the housing stock and the introduction of chemotherapy and BCG vaccination. The proportion of incident cases of tuberculosis in non-white groups has markedly increased over the period observed. The local tuberculosis control programme now specifically targets recent non-white immigrants. Other urban areas may need to adopt similar measures to improve local control of tuberculosis.