Coliform dynamics and the implications for source tracking.

In many parts of the world, coliform counts in recreational waters are unacceptably high. In an attempt to rectify this problem, programmes are under way to develop methods that will allow the sources of the faecal contamination thought to be responsible for these elevated counts to be identified. The success of these efforts depends on the validity of several assumptions that underlie many of the proposed methods. One of the critical assumptions is that the clonal composition of the coliform species being monitored in a water body reflects the clonal composition of the species in the host populations responsible for the faecal inputs into that water body. To determine the extent to which among-strain variation in a coliform species might invalidate this assumption, a series of simple mathematical models was proposed and analysed. The first series of models assumed that all cells of species were identical. The question posed was - is the density of a coliform species in a body of water linearly related to the rate at which cells of the species enter the water body via faecal production? The results of these models suggest that, over a wide range of conditions, cell densities in the water body are linearly related to the rate at which cells enter the water body as a result of faecal contamination. This outcome occurs whether or not cells are capable of division in the external environment. When the rate of cell division depends on the concentration of available nutrients then, when nutrient input rates are 'high' and rates of faecal contamination are 'low', this linear relationship does not hold. The second series of models assumed that the coliform species consists of different strains and that these strains differ in their performance in the external environment. The results of these multistrain models show that the relative abundance of strains in the external environment is unlikely to reflect their relative abundance in the faecal inputs to the environment. Consequently, statements such as - domestic animals are responsible for 30% and wildlife for 70% of the faecal inputs to a water body - may well be meaningless.