Smoking onset in adolescence: a person-centered analysis with time-varying predictors.

Predictions from smoking-specific versus contextual models of smoking onset were tested with data from a 4-wave sample with 1,364 adolescents. Predictor variables were derived from stress-coping theory, social influence theory, and problem-behavior theory. In addition to groups of abstainers and experimenters, cluster analysis of smoking data indicated 3 groups who showed onset either in 7th grade (early onset), 9th grade (intermediate onset), or 10th grade (late onset). Almost all study variables discriminated the smoking groups from the abstainers. The onset groups were discriminated by Group X Time interactions showing differential changes in predictors (increases in risk factors and declines in protective factors), which occurred just prior to onset. The results generally support a contextual model of the onset process.