Long-term forecast: key to groundwater protection.

Groundwater resources are at risk from pollution, climate change and land-management practices. Long-term forecast is a tool to demonstrate future development and to support decisions on measures which can be implemented, controlled and eventually corrected. As the basis for preventive action, a forecast can be viewed as a key to groundwater protection. The soil zone plays a vital role in groundwater protection. Research on soil and groundwater trends, as affected by change of climate and/or land-management practices, is on the agenda. Integrated research is necessary to develop numerical soil-water system models reflecting all relevant transport processes at various scales. Even relatively simple problems like forecasting pollutant release from contaminated materials are difficult to resolve. Batch tests may be sufficient in low-risk cases. At higher risk when contaminated substrates are chosen for deposition on a large scale, a thorough characterization of the materials is necessary covering all aspects of stability and possible changes of the environment.