Modeling the response of the Mediterranean fruit fly (Diptera:Tephritidae) to cold treatment.

Recent interceptions of live Mediterranean fruit fly, Ceratitis capitata (Wiedemann), larvae in fruit that had been cold-treated during transit from abroad led to a reevaluation of the scientific basis for the relevant regulatory treatment schedules. A time-temperature response surface model based on the original experimental data from 1916 was developed and evaluated based on subsequent experimental trials and recent surveillance data collected from shipping operations. The resultant model is reasonably robust and supports the conclusion that the previous treatment schedule falls short of the intended probit nine level of security. Given the vintage of the data, methodological inconsistencies among studies, and the potential consequences of new introductions, additional research is warranted. Quantitative analysis of the currently available data suggests that future studies regarding the efficacy of cold storage should focus on low-temperature, short-duration treatments, where uncertainty about performance appears greatest. The analysis of subsequent experiments also demonstrates that for cold treatment trials most often resulting in zero survivors, Bayesian statistical methods applied to a series of replicated trials of more manageable size offers a feasible alternative to conducting impracticably large trials.