An improved mathematical model of the ovulatory cycle of the laying hen.

1. The mathematical model of the hen's ovulatory cycle proposed by Etches and Schoch (British Poultry Science, 25: 65-76, 1984) predicts ovulation times for sequences of 2 to 9 ovulations only. 2. Continuous functions have been produced, representing the changes required to the parameters lambda1, lambda2, S1, S2, b1, b2 and b3, such that the prediction of any sequence length is now possible. 3. This improved ovulation model is capable of predicting ovulation times and intra-sequence ovulation intervals for any ovulation rate between 0.5 and 1.0. 4. The improved ovulatory model lends itself to stochasticity. The rate of lay of a population of hens at a time may be modelled with the use of means and standard errors for each of the parameters in the model. 5. Age-related changes in the ovulation rate of the population may be predicted using a combination of three methods, which are consistent with published theories that account for the decline in performance with time.