Incubation period, severity of disease, and infecting dose: evidence from a Salmonella outbreak.

The associations between infecting dose, incubation period, and the severity of disease were examined in a large outbreak of Salmonella typhimurium which occurred at a medical conference in Wales in 1986. Persons who had eaten two or more pieces of the chicken vehicle had, on average, shorter geometric mean incubation periods than those who had only eaten one piece: 16.6 hours (95% confidence interval (CI) 13.5-20.5) compared with 20.7 hours (95% CI 19.0-22.6) (t = 1.97, p < 0.05). Incubation period was negatively correlated with the maximum frequency of diarrheal stools (r = -0.46, 95% CI -0.56 to -0.33), the maximum temperature reached (r = -0.34, 95% CI -0.50 to -0.16), the duration of symptoms (r = -0.41, 95% CI -0.53 to -0.26), and the amount of time taken off from work (r = -0.54, 95% CI -0.65 to -0.41). Those with shorter incubation periods were more likely to have been hospitalized. There was no association between chicken consumption and any of the measures of severity. The authors discuss the evidence that incubation period is inversely related to dose, the use of incubation period as a marker for dose, and the role that individual differences in susceptibility play in determining both the incubation period and the outcome.