A modeled time-varying density function for the incubation period of AIDS.

Building on the Weibull distribution, we develop a modeled time-varying density function of the incubation time between exposure to HIV infection and full-blown AIDS. This approach leads to a series of cohort-specific density functions that take into account the increasing impact of new therapies such as zidovudine (AZT). The resulting modeled density functions are studied in detail, particularly with regard to their modes and medians. The mode is sensitive to changes in the period incubation time distribution, with even a possibility of a bimodal distribution for certain combinations of the parameters that determine the rate at which the period median incubation time changes. An important substantive result is that when a period median incubation period slowly increases to some leveling off value, say m(xc), then it is surprisingly early on that cohorts of infected individuals have a median incubation period very close to that ultimate value m(xc).