The burden of malaria in Ahmedabad city, India: a retrospective analysis of reported cases and deaths.

Owing to the paucity of accurate information on the burden of malaria in urban India, a retrospective, epidemiological study was carried out in Ahmedabad city, which has a population of about 3 million. Surveillance data for the years 1965-1998 showed a gradual resurgence of malaria between 1967 to 1976, followed by waves of low and high incidences. Plasmodium vivax always predominated but the proportion of cases attributed to P. falciparum increased markedly from 1983. When the surveillance data and health records of the major public and private health facilities in the city were analysed, for the period between 1991 and 1998, P. vivax was found to account for 69% of all malaria cases and P. falciparum for the other 31%. The incidence of infection with each Plasmodium species showed seasonal variation, with that of P. vivax increasing from January to September but then declining as the incidence of P. falciparum increased. The age-specific differences seen in incidence were not statistically significant (P=0.7). The annual numbers of malaria-attributable deaths were strongly correlated with the incidence of P. falciparum (r=0.88). The malaria incidence detected (37431 cases, representing a mean annual incidence of 12.2 cases/1000) was nine times greater than that officially reported (4119 cases, or 1.3 cases/1000 each year). Similarly, the annual malaria-attributable mortality detected (22 deaths/million) was far higher than that officially notified (0.3 death/million). The results of the retrospective analysis not only provide a more accurate, baseline estimate of the burden of malaria in an urban area of India but also clearly indicate the need for a much more efficient health-information system, for recording and managing malaria in such a setting.