Prevalence and predictors of esophageal varices in patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis.

Patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) may develop and bleed from esophageal varices. However, the exact prevalence of esophageal varices in patients with PSC remains unknown and potential predictors of esophageal varices in this population have not been identified. Our aim was to determine the prevalence of esophageal varices in patients with PSC and the variables that predict their presence. Data were collected on 283 patients with PSC treated for the first time at the Mayo Clinic (Rochester, MN) during 8 consecutive years. Thirty-six percent (102 of 283) of patients had esophageal varices including 56% (57 of 102) with moderate/large varices. After excluding 28 patients with a history of variceal bleeding, data on 183 patients were analyzed to identify independent predictors of esophageal varices and of moderate/large size varices. Platelet count, albumin level, and advanced histologic disease were independent predictors of esophageal varices (area under the receiver operator characteristic [ROC] curve = 0.88). After controlling for the presence of advanced histologic stage and albumin levels, the odds ratios (OR) of platelet count less than 150 x 10(3)/dL for the presence of esophageal varices was 6.3 (95% CI: 2.6-15.8). The diagnostic accuracy of these results was corroborated by cross-validation of the data in an independent set of 72 patients with PSC (area under the ROC = 0.90). In conclusion, in patients with PSC, noninvasive markers of portal hypertension and of advanced liver disease predict the presence of esophageal varices. Our results suggest a clinically applicable and useful approach to identify patients with PSC who are more likely to benefit from endoscopic screening for esophageal varices.