Asthma population management: development and validation of a practical 3-level risk stratification scheme.

OBJECTIVE: To define and validate a practical risk stratification scheme based on administrative data for use in identifying patients at high, medium, and low risk of requiring emergency hospital care for asthma. STUDY
DESIGN: Retrospective cohort. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Predictors in 1999 were evaluated in relation to 2000 asthma emergency hospital care (any asthma hospitalization or emergency department visit) in a training set (n = 8789, 2000 emergency hospital care = 5.5%) and a testing set (n = 6104, 2000 emergency hospital care = 7.9%). Logistic regression was used to assign risk points in the training set, and positive and negative predictive values, sensitivities, and specificities were calculated in the training and testing sets.
RESULTS: High risk was defined as asthma emergency hospital care in the previous year or use of >14 beta-agonist canisters and oral corticosteroid use; medium risk was defined as no emergency hospital care but use of either >14 beta-agonist canisters or oral corticosteroids; and low risk was defined as none of the above. For the high-risk groups in the training and testing sets, positive predictive values were 12.9% and 22.0%, sensitivities were 24.8% and 25.4%, specificities were 90.3% and 92.0%, and negative predictive values were 95.4% and 93.2%, respectively. The medium-risk groups identified another 32.6% of patients in the training set and 28.3% in the testing set requiring subsequent asthma emergency hospital care.
CONCLUSION: This simple risk stratification scheme is useful for identifying patients from administrative data who are at increased risk of experiencing emergency hospital care for asthma.