The impact of local heterogeneity on alternative control strategies for foot-and-mouth disease.

The 2001 epidemic of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in the UK resulted in the death of nearly 10 million livestock at a cost that was estimated to be up to 8 billion pounds. Owing to the controversy surrounding the epidemic, the question of whether or not alternative policies would have resulted in significantly better control of the epidemic remains of great interest. A hexagonal lattice simulation of FMD in Cumbria is used to address the central question of whether or not better use could have been made of expert knowledge of FMD transmission to target pre-emptive culling, by assuming that the premises at greatest risk of becoming infected can be targeted for culling. The 2000 UK census and the epidemiological database collected during the epidemic are used to describe key characteristics of disease transmission, and the model is fit to the epidemic time-series. Under the assumptions of the model, the parameters that best fit the epidemic in Cumbria indicate that a policy based on expert knowledge would have exacerbated the epidemic compared with the policy as implemented. However, targeting more distant, high-risk farms could be more valuable under different epidemic conditions, notably, if risk factors of sufficient magnitude could be identified to aid in prioritizing vaccination or culling of farms at high risk of becoming infected.