Trends in coronary risk factors in Italy. Responsible Investigators of the RF2, OB43 and MICOL Research Groups.

Three large-scale epidemiological surveys covering some major coronary risk factors were conducted in Italy in population samples of men and women aged 30-59 years. The first survey was carried out in 1978-1979 (RF2 study; nine samples in eight regions; 2561 men and 2912 women); the second in 1983-1984 (OB43 study; nine samples in the same eight regions; 2267 men and 2398 women); and the third one in 1985-1987 (MICOL study; 18 samples in 10 regions; 14,411 men and 12,611 women). Time trends in mean age standardized risk factors levels showed slight but systematic decreases in blood pressure, cigarette smoking (only in men), and body mass index (only in women); whereas no substantial changes were observed in serum cholesterol levels. The combined multiple coronary risk estimated by a model produced in a previous study, showed a decline between 1978-1979 and 1983-1984 of 5.5% in men and 13.4% in women. These changes were compared with the official coronary death rates between 1984 and 1987 in the whole country and in the regions where the samples were located. The expected/observed ratio computed in different ways ranged from 0.54 to 0.88 for men and was over 1 for women. Changes in the levels of major risk factors and changes in coronary mortality seem biologically coherent at least in men.