Use of modeled photosynthesis and decomposition to describe tree growth at the northern tree line.

Growth of subarctic Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) trees was investigated by a combination of process-based models and dendroecological approaches. Tree ring width indices were strongly autocorrelated and correlated with simulated photosynthetic production of the previous year and with organic matter N mineralization of the current year. An autoregressive model, with photosynthesis and N mineralization as external inputs, explained growth of the trees well. However, relationships for the period 1950-1992 differed significantly from relationships for the period 1876-1949; the slope of the regression of tree ring width index and photosynthesis was lower for the 1950-1992 period. Also, the autocorrelation structure of the data changed. First-order autocorrelation decreased and second-order autocorrelation increased from the earlier to the later period. This means that growth is becoming less sensitive to variations in photosynthetic production, whereas the relationships between growth and N mineralization are remaining fairly constant. We postulate that, although photosynthesis has increased in response to increasing CO2 concentrations, tree growth rate cannot parallel the increase in photosynthesis because potential growth rate is limited directly by temperature.