Birth weight as a predictor of calving ease and perinatal mortality in Holstein cattle.

The objective of this research was to determine the effect of birth weight on perinatal mortality (PM) (alive or dead at 48 h of age) and dystocia (unassisted or assisted). Data were 4528 records of births between 1968 and 1999 from the Iowa State University research dairy farm in Ankeny. The incidence of PM was 7.1%; dystocia was 23.7%. A logistic regression model was used to predict both PM and dystocia. The PM model included effects of year of birth, season (summer or winter), dystocia, parity (first or later), birth weight (kg), ratio of calfs birth weight to dam's weight (%), and gestation length (d). Odds of PM increased by 2.1%/yr. Calves born in the winter have a 36% higher risk of PM than calves born in the summer. Difficult births tend to result in PM 2.7 times more often than unassisted births. First-parity cows have a 2.4 times higher risk of PM than cows in later parities. Probabilities of PM for birth weights of 29, 35, 40, 46, and 52 kg were 2.1, 2.5, 3.4, 5.1, and 9.6%, respectively, when other factors were set at their average value. Similarly, ratios of calf to cow weight of 4.5, 5.7, 6.9, 8.1, and 9.3% yield probabilities of PM at 8.2, 4.2, 3.1, 3.5, and 5.7%, respectively. Finally, gestation lengths of 268, 273, 279, 284, and 290 d yield probabilities of PM of 5.5, 3.9, 3.1, 3.1, and 3.6%, respectively. The dystocia model included effects of year of birth, season, sex of calf, PM, parity, birth weight, and pelvic area (externally measured). Odds for dystocia decreased by 4.7%/yr. Calves born in the winter have a 15% higher risk of dystocia than calves born in the summer. Odds of male calves needing assistance were 25% greater than female calves. If a calf died in the first 48 h, then it is 2.7 times more likely that the calf needed assistance. First-parity cows have a 4.7 times higher risk of dystocia than cows in later parities. Odds of dystocia increase by 13%/kg increase in birth weight. An 11% decrease in odds for dystocia is associated with a one square decimeter (dm2) increase in pelvic area.