OBJECTIVE: To study the impact of the HIV epidemic on tuberculosis (TB) incidence in developing countries. DESIGN: A simple mathematical model is constructed using figures from published reports to estimate the rise of TB incidence as the HIV epidemic expands. METHOD: Two groups with different risk of developing TB are identified: individuals with dual infection of HIV and Mycobacterium tuberculosis and the rest of the population. The model is based on a combination of the incidence and the percentage of TB in these two groups. The expected rise in TB incidence and the percentage of TB cases that will be HIV-positive are plotted against the prevalence of HIV. CONCLUSIONS: Unless appropriate action is taken, TB incidence in developing countries will double as the prevalence of HIV infection reaches 13 per hundred adults.
OBJECTIVE: To study the impact of the HIV epidemic on tuberculosis (TB) incidence in developing countries. DESIGN: A simple mathematical model is constructed using figures from published reports to estimate the rise of TB incidence as the HIV epidemic expands. METHOD: Two groups with different risk of developing TB are identified: individuals with dual infection of HIV and Mycobacterium tuberculosis and the rest of the population. The model is based on a combination of the incidence and the percentage of TB in these two groups. The expected rise in TB incidence and the percentage of TB cases that will be HIV-positive are plotted against the prevalence of HIV. CONCLUSIONS: Unless appropriate action is taken, TB incidence in developing countries will double as the prevalence of HIV infection reaches 13 per hundred adults.
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Keywords:
Comparative Studies; Developing Countries; Diseases; Hiv Infections; Incidence; Infections; Mathematical Model; Measurement; Models, Theoretical; Organization And Administration; Planning; Prevalence; Research Methodology; Studies; Theoretical Studies; Tuberculosis; Viral Diseases
Authors: R M G J Houben; D W Dowdy; A Vassall; T Cohen; M P Nicol; R M Granich; J E Shea; P Eckhoff; C Dye; M E Kimerling; R G White Journal: Int J Tuberc Lung Dis Date: 2014-05 Impact factor: 2.373