Service screening with mammography. Long-term effects on breast cancer mortality in the county of Gävleborg, Sweden.

In the current study the long-term effects of a pilot service screening programme in the Swedish county of Gävleborg were studied. Women aged 40-64 years in 13 sub-areas were followed from start of screening between 1974 and 1979. Two control groups were used for comparison; the neighbouring counties and all of Sweden. A reference period prior to the study period was used to facilitate an adjustment for possible differences in baseline breast cancer mortality. Only deaths from breast cancer diagnosed after the first invitation to screening were analysed. Two outcome measures were used for breast cancer mortality; the underlying cause of death and excess mortality. Using the neighbouring counties as a control group, the relative risk, after 22 years of follow-up, of 10 years of screening was estimated at 0.84 (95% CI 0.71-1.00) using excess mortality. Due to lead time bias the relative risk was overestimated by 4%. Hence, a significant 20% reduction of breast cancer excess mortality was found.