Use of pharmacoeconomics in prescribing research. Part 5: modelling--beyond clinical trials.

This paper provides an overview of modelling in the economic evaluation of pharmaceuticals, reflecting the increasing use of models in analyses prepared for reimbursement applications to national and local drug formularies. The paper seeks to demystify the most commonly encountered modelling techniques (extrapolation, decision analysis, Markov modelling and Monte Carlo simulation), and to provide guidance in assessing the quality of submitted or published modelled economic evaluations.