Determinants of health policy impact: a theoretical framework for policy analysis.

This paper addresses the role of policy and evidence in health promotion. The concept of von Wright's "logic of events" is introduced and applied to health policy impact analysis. According to von Wright (1976), human action can be explained by a restricted number of determinants: wants, abilities, duties, and opportunities. The dynamics of action result from changes in opportunities (logic of events). Applied to the policymaking process, the present model explains personal wants as subordinated to political goals. Abilities of individual policy makers are part of organisational resources. Also, personal duties are subordinated to institutional obligations. Opportunities are mainly related to political context and public support. The present analysis suggests that policy determinants such as concrete goals, sufficient resources and public support may be crucial for achieving an intended behaviour change on the population level, while other policy determinants, e.g., personal commitment and organisational capacities, may especially relate to the policy implementation process. The paper concludes by indicating ways in which future research using this theoretical framework might contribute to health promotion practice for improved health outcomes across populations.