Developing and testing a model to predict outcomes of organizational change.

Health care decisions could be better informed by research evidence, but there are many areas in which there is little or inconclusive research. Pooling expert knowledge is one way to generate theories and make predictions in areas where there is little clear research evidence. This article addresses these two perspectives in parallel: (1) how to systematically build expert models that have a high predictive and explanatory value by the use of the Integrative Group Process and (2) a model to predict which quality improvement initiatives will be successful, the Swedish Organizational Change Model. The model reveals 11 factors important for successful improvement. Tests of the model conclude that it predicts a high number of successful and unsuccessful initiatives. It can thus be used to diagnose weaknesses in improvement efforts, to measure an organization's overall potential for successful improvement, and to prioritize potential initiatives under consideration.