OBJECTIVES: (1) To define models that predict in-hospital death, major adverse cardiac events and extended intensive care unit duration for patients who underwent coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), a heart valve operation or combined; and (2) to validate the Euroscore model in our population. METHODS: Data of all 7282 patient who underwent a CABG and/or heart valve operation in 1997-2001 were prospectively collected. Three outcomes were examined: in-hospital death, major adverse cardiac events (MACE) and extended length of stay on intensive care (ELOS). Predicting models were made by multivariate logistic regression. The patient population was randomly divided in a derivation (two thirds) and a validation (one third) set. Area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) was used to study the discriminatory abilities of these models and the Euroscore. Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit was used to study calibration of the predictive models. RESULTS: 2.4% of the patients died in-hospital, 17% of the patients had a MACE and 14% had ELOS. The models for in-hospital mortality and ELOS had a good validation (AUC 0.84 and 0.79, respectively). The validation for MACE was moderate (receiver-operating characteristic, ROC 0.67). All models were well calibrated. The validation of the Euroscore was as good as our model for in-hospital mortality (ROC 0.84). CONCLUSIONS: The Amphia score performs as well as the Euroscore in discriminating patients with respect to in-hospital death. Our models for predicting major adverse cardiac events and extended length of stay on intensive care may be useful tools in categorising patients in various subgroups of risk for postoperative morbidity.
OBJECTIVES: (1) To define models that predict in-hospital death, major adverse cardiac events and extended intensive care unit duration for patients who underwent coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), a heart valve operation or combined; and (2) to validate the Euroscore model in our population. METHODS: Data of all 7282 patient who underwent a CABG and/or heart valve operation in 1997-2001 were prospectively collected. Three outcomes were examined: in-hospital death, major adverse cardiac events (MACE) and extended length of stay on intensive care (ELOS). Predicting models were made by multivariate logistic regression. The patient population was randomly divided in a derivation (two thirds) and a validation (one third) set. Area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) was used to study the discriminatory abilities of these models and the Euroscore. Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit was used to study calibration of the predictive models. RESULTS: 2.4% of the patients died in-hospital, 17% of the patients had a MACE and 14% had ELOS. The models for in-hospital mortality and ELOS had a good validation (AUC 0.84 and 0.79, respectively). The validation for MACE was moderate (receiver-operating characteristic, ROC 0.67). All models were well calibrated. The validation of the Euroscore was as good as our model for in-hospital mortality (ROC 0.84). CONCLUSIONS: The Amphia score performs as well as the Euroscore in discriminating patients with respect to in-hospital death. Our models for predicting major adverse cardiac events and extended length of stay on intensive care may be useful tools in categorising patients in various subgroups of risk for postoperative morbidity.
Authors: Roelof G A Ettema; Linda M Peelen; Cor J Kalkman; Arno P Nierich; Karel G M Moons; Marieke J Schuurmans Journal: Intensive Care Med Date: 2011-07-30 Impact factor: 17.440
Authors: Bas B Koolen; Joost A M Labout; Paul G H Mulder; Bastiaan M Gerritse; Tom A Rijpstra; Mohamed Bentala; Peter M J Rosseel; Nardo J M van der Meer Journal: Interact Cardiovasc Thorac Surg Date: 2013-06-20
Authors: E K Hogervorst; P M J Rosseel; L M G van de Watering; A Brand; M Bentala; B J M van der Meer; J G van der Bom Journal: Neth Heart J Date: 2018-11 Impact factor: 2.380
Authors: Inge T Bootsma; Thomas W L Scheeren; Fellery de Lange; Johannes Haenen; Piet W Boonstra; E Christaan Boerma Journal: J Intensive Care Date: 2018-12-27