Opportunities for improved risk assessments of exotic species in Canada using bioclimatic modeling.

This paper briefly reviews the process of exotic pest risk assessments and presents some examples of emerging opportunities for spatial bioclimatic modeling of exotic species in Canada. This type of analysis can support risk assessments but does not replace the need for on-going high quality field-based observations to validate and update models. Bioclimatic analysis of several exotic pests is provided to illustrate both opportunities and limits. A link is demonstrated to the National Forest Inventory to characterize timber volumes at risk for one exotic species. 'Challenges' are both scientific and administrative. More accessible and current field survey data are required to improve models. Our experience is that for many exotic species, historical, and even current, data are not always digital or quality controlled for taxonomic identity and accurate geo-referencing. This inhibits their use for integrated spatial modeling applications.