Chronic idiopathic myelofibrosis: prognostic impact of myelofibrosis and clinical parameters on event-free survival in 122 patients who presented in prefibrotic and fibrotic stages. A retrospective study identifying subgroups of different prognoses by using the RECPAM method.

In chronic idiopathic myelofibrosis (CIMF) the factors predicting survival in patients who were already in the fibrotic stage have been well documented by numerous studies. Prefibrotic stages were only rarely evaluated so that the prognostic impact of myelofibrosis is currently not well known. Also predictive factors for disease-related events were not included in those studies. Thus, we evaluated the prognostic impact of myelofibrosis and other histopathological (megakaryocytes, blasts) and clinical [age, gender, splenomegaly, chemotherapy, hemoglobin (Hb), leukocyte, and platelet count] parameters in 122 patients in fibrotic and prefibrotic stages of CIMF on event-free survival. The statistical analysis was performed using the univariate log-rank test and the multivariate recursive partition and amalgamation (RECPAM) approach. In 62 patients disease-related events occurred during a mean observation period of 58 months. In univariate analysis they were associated with blast increase in the bone marrow. In RECPAM analysis a shorter event-free survival was found in anemic patients (mean: 9.3 months). In nonanemic patients older than 60 years, advanced myelofibrosis was associated with a shorter event-free mean survival of 23.2 months versus 69.3 months in less advanced cases. A slight or moderate myelofibrosis was not found to have a prognostic impact on event-free survival. The longest event-free survival was found in nonanemic patients who were younger than 60 years (mean: 185 months), regardless of the grade of myelofibrosis. Thus, we found that the most relevant prognostic parameter for event-free survival in CIMF were the Hb value, age, and grade of myelofibrosis.