Trends in mortality from diabetes mellitus in Taiwan, 1960-1988.

The increasing trends of mortality from diabetes mellitus in Taiwan are becoming a public health concern. The age-adjusted death rate for diabetes was 3.7 per 100,000 population in 1960, which increased to 23.2 per 100,000 in 1988, a 6.3-fold increase over the past 30 years. The mortality data for diabetes in Taiwan from 1960 to 1988 for both sexes are presented and analysed using an age-period-cohort model in order to gain a better understanding of the possible determinants of the time trends of this disease. Steeply increasing trends which are particularly prominent in the elderly are found in the periods studied. Females and urban dwellers demonstrated greater risks for developing the disease. Significant cohort effects were found which peaked in the birth-cohort 1910-1917. This declined thereafter for females but has levelled since then for males. Further study is necessary to assess the aetiological implications of diet and urbanization on time trends of diabetes.