Prediction of the rate of decline in cognitive function in Alzheimer's disease: a model based on simple demographic data and widely used rating scales.

Dementia represents a significant burden on the resources of both the National Health Service and Social Services as well as a great strain on the caregivers. The ability to predict, at diagnosis, those dementia patients that will deteriorate rapidly would allow a more effective allocation of resources as well as enabling the families and caregivers to make appropriate preparations. We performed discriminant analysis on a placebo data set of over 5,000 patients with Alzheimer's disease in order to create a model that predicts the rate of cognitive decline in Alzheimer's disease from simple demographic data and the baseline score on the cognitive subscale of the Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale or the Mini Mental State Examination. This model has 96-97% sensitivity and 92-93% specificity. The potential benefits of this model argue for its validation in a prospective study. Copyright 2003 S. Karger AG, Basel