A latent class model for individual differences in the interpretation of conditionals.

We investigated the hypothesis that there are three levels of performance associated with conditional reasoning: (1) Unsophisticated reasoners solve a modus tollens by accepting the invited inferences, treating the conditional as if it were a biconditional. (2) Reasoners of an intermediate level can resist the invited inferences, but cannot find the line of reasoning needed to endorse modus tollens. (3) Sophisticated reasoners do not draw the invited inferences either, but they do master the strategy to solve a modus tollens. On a first set of six problems, solved by 214 adolescents, an unrestricted latent class analysis revealed the existence of a large subgroup of reasoners with a biconditional interpretation of the conditional, and a smaller subgroup with a conditional interpretation. On a second set of 24 problems, solved by the same participants, a restricted latent class model corroborated the existence of a large subgroup of unsophisticated reasoners and a smaller subgroup of reasoners of an intermediate level. No evidence was found for the existence of a subgroup of sophisticated reasoners. As expected, the class of biconditional reasoners was associated with the class of unsophisticated reasoners, and the class of conditional reasoners was associated with the class of reasoners of an intermediate level. Furthermore, the former showed a biconditonal response pattern on truth table tasks, whereas the latter showed a conditional response pattern.