Ecological risk assessment of pollutant chemicals: extinction risk based on population-level effects.

The extinction probability is one of the most useful endpoints that are utilized in conservation biology. A parallel approach is advocated for the ecological risk assessment of chemical pollutants. The presented framework estimates extinction probability induced by pollutant chemicals in order to evaluate ecological hazards of pollution, and is applicable to any biological community (aquatic or terrestrial). The analytical framework, which is based on stochastic population dynamics theory, is briefly explained. The extinction risk estimation is feasible if ecotoxicological data concerning pollutant effects on population growth rate of organisms (the intrinsic rate of natural increase), and if environmental exposure concentration is provided. Tentative risk estimation was made for some agrochemicals and surfactants on zooplankton populations (Daphnia) as target organisms.