The utility of pretest probability assessment in patients with clinically suspected venous thromboembolism.

The assessment of pretest probability (PTP), with stratification into low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups is an essential initial step in the current diagnostic management of patients with suspected venous thromboembolism (VTE). In combination with additional information, it reduces the need for initial and supplementary imaging, and allows considerable refinement of the posterior probability of VTE following non-invasive imaging. PTP may be assessed either empirically or by using various decision rules or scoring systems, the best known of which are the simplified Wells scores for suspected deep vein thrombosis (DVT) and pulmonary embolism (PE), and the Geneva score for suspected PE. Each of these approaches shows similar directional and categorical accuracy, and has been validated as facilitating clinically useful classification of the PTP, although an overview of data suggests that fewer patients tend to be classified as low PTP when assessed empirically. This group is the most important to identify, as several outcome studies have shown that imaging and treatment are safely obviated in outpatients with suspected DVT or PE who have a low PTP in combination with negative d-dimer testing, a subgroup accounting for up to half of all patients studied. Hence, while probably not of critical importance, the explicit approach offered by scoring systems might be preferred over empirical assessment, particularly when used by more junior staff.